Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov says Vladimir Putin is unwilling to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, despite recognizing that the 2022 invasion was based on mistaken assumptions about Ukraine’s weakness. Kasyanov argues that higher oil prices and divisions between the United States and Europe have emboldened Putin to continue the war without concessions; he also describes fear and disagreement within Russia’s ruling elite, while seeing little prospect of an immediate public revolt. He warned that winter could be especially difficult for Ukraine and urged Western governments to stay united and urgently provide Kyiv with Patriot missile interceptors.
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Western unity plus Patriot deliveries is the only pressure that might force Moscow to reconsider.
Russian elites staying silent out of fear only prolongs the suffering on both sides of the border.
Putin knows he miscalculated yet keeps sending troops to die rather than admit fault to his own people.
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