Polls show varying leads for Flávio Bolsonaro over Lula in Brazil runoff

Polls of Brazil’s presidential runoff show Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though estimates vary sharply. Quaest found 46% for Bolsonaro and 44% for Lula, within its two-point margin of error, while PowerData/Aya reported a similarly close 51%-49% split in valid votes. Other surveys put Bolsonaro’s advantage wider: Future Intelligence reported 50%-46.6%, BTG/Nexus reported 52%-48% in valid votes, and Gerp reported 55%-45% in valid votes. The differing results leave the race’s precise standing uncertain, with several polls pointing to a close contest and others showing a more substantial Bolsonaro lead.