Hinson, Turek set for first Iowa Senate debate

Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson debate Wednesday, October 7, 2026, at 7 p.m. CT at Iowa PBS studios in Johnston, Iowa, moderated by Kay Henderson and two reporters. The seat is open because Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring. Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss Up; Inside Elections rates it Tilt Republican. A Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters conducted October 1-4 found Turek at 48 percent, Hinson at 44 percent, and Libertarian Thomas Laehn at about 2 percent, with a margin of error of ±4.4 points. That reversed Suffolk's August survey, when Hinson led 45 percent to 41 percent. Suffolk also found Turek leading independents 58 percent to 30 percent. Other recent surveys differed: New York Times/Siena had Hinson 48 percent to Turek 47 percent; Quantus Insights had Hinson 47.1 percent to 45.8 percent initially and 48.5 percent to 46.6 percent with leaners; Fox News had Turek 49 percent to Hinson 47 percent. RealClearPolling's Wednesday average was Turek 46.2 percent to Hinson 45.2 percent. Kalshi and Polymarket each showed about 55 percent odds for Hinson as of Wednesday morning. Iowa has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator in nearly two decades.