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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How can we know?.
nonfiction book by Philip E. Tetlock
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Amateurs with habits beat spies at predicting world events
Volunteers with no clearance still beat classified analysts by a thirty-point edge—proof that scoreable habits beat credentials.
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About Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How can we know?
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock. The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.
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