2016 United States presidential election

Background

President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. senator from Illinois, was ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to the restrictions of the American presidential term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties, as well as third parties such as the Green and Libertarian parties, held a series of presidential primary elections and caucuses that took place between February and June 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories. This nominating process was also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who in turn elected their party's presidential nominee. Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring that the race had begun in an article published on November 8, two days after the 2012 election. On the same day, Politico released an article predicting that the 2016 general election would be between Clinton and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, while an article in The New York Times named New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey as potential candidates.

Nominations

Republican Party

With seventeen major candidates entering the race, starting with Ted Cruz on March 23, 2015, this was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history, before being overtaken by the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries.

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Trump came in second to Cruz, after which Huckabee, Paul, and Santorum withdrew due to poor performances at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina, and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush followed suit after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio, and Cruz in South Carolina. On March 1, the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma, and his home state of Texas, and Trump won the other seven states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later. On March 15, the second "Super Tuesday", Kasich won his only contest in his home state of Ohio, and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state.

Between March 16 and May 3, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz, and Kasich. Cruz won the most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on the first ballot with 1,237 delegates. Trump then augmented his lead by scoring landslide victories in his home state of New York and five Northeastern states in April, followed by a decisive victory in Indiana on May 3, securing all 57 of the state's delegates. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, both Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns. Trump remained the only active candidate and was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3.

A 2018 study found that media coverage of Trump led to increased public support for him during the primaries. The study showed that Trump received nearly $2 billion in free media, more than double any other candidate. Political scientist John M. Sides argued that Trump's polling surge was "almost certainly" due to frequent media coverage of his campaign. Sides concluded "Trump is surging in the polls because the news media has consistently focused on him since he announced his candidacy on June 16". Prior to clinching the Republican nomination, Trump received little support from establishment Republicans.

Democratic Party

Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the first lady of the United States, became the first Democrat in the field to formally launch a major candidacy for the presidency with an announcement on April 12, 2015, via a video message. While nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Clinton was the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, she faced strong challenges from independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who became the second major candidate when he formally announced on April 30, that he was running for the Democratic nomination. September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders. On May 30, former governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third major candidate to enter the Democratic primary race, followed by former independent governor and Republican senator of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee on June 3, former Virginia senator Jim Webb on July 2, and former Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig on September 6.

On October 20, Webb announced his withdrawal from the primaries, and explored a potential independent run. The next day, Vice President Joe Biden decided not to run, ending months of speculation, stating, "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent". On October 23, Chafee withdrew, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity". On November 2, after failing to qualify for the second DNC-sanctioned debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in the debate, Lessig withdrew as well, narrowing the field to Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders.

On February 1, 2016, Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by a margin of 0.2 points over Sanders. After winning no delegates in Iowa, O'Malley withdrew from the presidential race that day. On February 9, Sanders bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote. In the remaining two February contests, Clinton won the Nevada caucuses with 53% of the vote and scored a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary with 73% of the vote. On March 1, eleven states participated in the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries. Clinton won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia and 504 pledged delegates, while Sanders won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and his home state of Vermont and 340 delegates. The following weekend, Sanders won victories in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine with 15- to 30-point margins, while Clinton won the Louisiana primary with 71% of the vote. On March 8, despite never having a lead in the Michigan primary, Sanders won by a small margin of 1.5 points and outperforming polls by over 19 points, while Clinton won 83% of the vote in Mississippi. On March 15, the second "Super Tuesday", Clinton won in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. Between March 22 and April 9, Sanders won six caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, and Wyoming, as well as the Wisconsin primary, while Clinton won the Arizona primary. On April 19, Clinton won the New York primary with 58% of the vote. On April 26, in the third "Super Tuesday" dubbed the "Acela primary", she won contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, while Sanders won in Rhode Island. Over the course of May, Sanders accomplished another surprise win in the Indiana primary and also won in West Virginia and Oregon, while Clinton won the Guam caucus and Kentucky primary (and also non-binding primaries in Nebraska and Washington).

Minor parties and independents

Third party and independent candidates who obtained more than 100,000 votes nationally or on ballot in at least 15 states are listed separately.

Gary Johnson, 29th governor of New Mexico. Vice-presidential nominee: Bill Weld, 68th governor of Massachusetts.

Notable endorsements: Scott Rigell, Tom Campbell, James L. Buckley, Jesse Ventura, John Stossel

Additional party endorsements: Independence Party of New York

John McAfee, founder and CEO of McAfee, Inc.

Notable endorsements: Adam Kokesh, John Moore, L. Neil Smith

Austin Petersen, owner and founder of The Libertarian Republic

Ballot access to all 538 electoral votes

Nominees

Jill Stein, physician from Lexington, Massachusetts. Vice-presidential nominee: Ajamu Baraka, activist from Washington, D.C.

Ballot access to 480 electoral votes (522 with write-in):

map

As write-in: Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina

No ballot access: Nevada, South Dakota, Oklahoma

Nominees

Darrell Castle, attorney from Memphis, Tennessee. Vice-presidential nominee: Scott Bradley, businessman from Utah.

General election campaign

Beliefs and policies of candidates

Hillary Clinton focused her candidacy on several themes, including raising middle class incomes, expanding women's rights, instituting campaign finance reform, and improving the Affordable Care Act. In March 2016, she laid out a detailed economic plan basing her economic philosophy on inclusive capitalism, which proposed a "clawback" that rescinds tax cuts and other benefits for companies that move jobs overseas; with provision of incentives for companies that share profits with employees, communities and the environment, rather than focusing on short-term profits to increase stock value and rewarding shareholders; as well as increasing collective bargaining rights; and placing an "exit tax" on companies that move their headquarters out of the U.S. in order to pay a lower tax rate overseas. Clinton promoted equal pay for equal work to address current alleged shortfalls in how much women are paid to do the same jobs men do, promoted explicitly focus on family issues and support of universal preschool, expressed support for the right to same-sex marriage, and proposed allowing undocumented immigrants to have a path to citizenship stating that it "[i]s at its heart a family issue".

Donald Trump's campaign drew heavily on his personal image, enhanced by his previous media exposure. The primary slogan of the Trump campaign, extensively used on campaign merchandise, was Make America Great Again. The red baseball cap with the slogan emblazoned on the front became a symbol of the campaign and has been frequently donned by Trump and his supporters. Trump's right-wing populist positions—reported by The New Yorker to be nativist, protectionist, and semi-isolationist—differ in many ways from traditional U.S. conservatism. He opposed many free trade deals and military interventionist policies that conservatives generally support, and opposed cuts in Medicare and Social Security benefits. Moreover, he has insisted that Washington is "broken" and can be fixed only by an outsider. Support for Trump was high among working and middle-class white male voters with annual incomes of less than $50,000 and no college degree. This group, particularly those without a high-school diploma, suffered a decline in their income in recent years. According to The Washington Post, support for Trump is higher in areas with a higher mortality rate for middle-aged white people. A sample of interviews with more than 11,000 Republican-leaning respondents from August to December 2015 found that Trump at that time found his strongest support among Republicans in West Virginia, followed by New York, and then followed by six Southern states.

Media coverage

Clinton had an uneasy—and, at times, adversarial—relationship with the press throughout her life in public service. Weeks before her official entry as a presidential candidate, Clinton attended a political press corps event, pledging to start fresh on what she described as a "complicated" relationship with political reporters. Clinton was initially criticized by the press for avoiding taking their questions, after which she provided more interviews.

In contrast, Trump benefited from free media more than any other candidate. From the beginning of his campaign through February 2016, Trump received almost $2 billion in free media attention, twice the amount that Clinton received. According to data from the Tyndall Report, which tracks nightly news content, through February 2016, Trump alone accounted for more than a quarter of all 2016 election coverage on the evening newscasts of NBC, CBS and ABC, more than all the Democratic campaigns combined. Observers noted Trump's ability to garner constant mainstream media coverage "almost at will". However, Trump frequently criticized the media for writing what he alleged to be false stories about him and he has called upon his supporters to be "the silent majority". Trump also said the media "put false meaning into the words I say", and says he does not mind being criticized by the media as long as they are honest about it.

Controversies

According to a wide range of representative polls, both Clinton and Trump had significant net-unfavorability ratings, and their controversial reputations set the tone of the campaign.

Clinton's practice during her time as Secretary of State of using a private email address and server, in lieu of State Department servers, gained widespread public attention back in March 2015. Concerns were raised about security and preservation of emails, and the possibility that laws may have been violated. After allegations were raised that some of the emails in question fell into this so-called "born classified" category, an FBI probe was initiated regarding how classified information was handled on the Clinton server.

The FBI probe was concluded on July 5, 2016, with a recommendation of no charges, a recommendation that was followed by the Justice Department.

Also, on September 9, Clinton said: "You know, just to be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. They're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic—you name it", adding "But that 'other' basket of people are people who feel the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures; and they're just desperate for change...Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well".

Donald Trump criticized her remark as insulting his supporters. The following day Clinton expressed regret for saying "half", while insisting that Trump had deplorably amplified "hateful views and voices". Previously on August 25, Clinton gave a speech criticizing Trump's campaign for using "racist lies" and allowing the alt-right to gain prominence.

On September 11, Clinton left a 9/11 memorial event early due to illness. Video footage of Clinton's departure showed Clinton becoming unsteady on her feet and being helped into a van. Later that evening, Clinton reassured reporters that she was "feeling great". After initially stating that Clinton had become overheated at the event, her campaign later added that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia two days earlier. The media criticized the Clinton campaign for a lack of transparency regarding Clinton's illness. Clinton cancelled a planned trip to California due to her illness. The episode drew renewed public attention to questions about Clinton's health.

Ballot access

Candidates in bold were on ballots representing 270 electoral votes, without needing write-in states.

All other candidates were on the ballots of fewer than 25 states, but had write-in access greater than 270.

Party conventions

Republican Party

July 18–21: Republican National Convention was held in Cleveland, Ohio.

Democratic Party

July 25–28: Democratic National Convention was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Libertarian Party

May 26–30: Libertarian National Convention was held in Orlando, Florida.

Green Party

August 4–7: Green National Convention was held in Houston, Texas.

Constitution Party

April 13–16: Constitution Party National Convention was held in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Campaign finance

Wall Street spent a record $2 billion trying to influence the 2016 United States presidential election.

The following table is an overview of the money used in the campaign as it was reported to Federal Election Commission (FEC) and released in September 2016. Outside groups are independent expenditure-only committees – also called PACs and SuperPACs. The sources of the numbers are the FEC and OpenSecrets. Some spending totals are not available, due to withdrawals before the FEC deadline. As of September 2016, ten candidates with ballot access had filed financial reports with the FEC.

Voting rights

The 2016 presidential election was the first in 50 years without all the protections of the original Voting Rights Act of 1965. Fourteen states had new voting restrictions in place, including swing states such as Virginia and Wisconsin.

Election administration

Among states that offered early in-person voting to all voters in 2016, 27 percent of all votes were cast early in person. Across states where mail voting was available to all voters, 34 percent of all votes were cast by mail. Nationwide, a total of 40 percent of votes were cast before Election Day in the 2016 general election.

Newspaper endorsements

Clinton was endorsed by The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Houston Chronicle, the San Jose Mercury News, the Chicago Sun-Times and the New York Daily News editorial boards. Several papers which endorsed Clinton, such as the Houston Chronicle, The Dallas Morning News, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Columbus Dispatch and The Arizona Republic, endorsed their first Democratic candidate for many decades. The Atlantic, which has been in circulation since 1857, gave Clinton its third-ever endorsement (after Abraham Lincoln and Lyndon Johnson).

Trump, who frequently criticized the mainstream media, was not endorsed by the vast majority of newspapers. The Las Vegas Review-Journal, The Florida Times-Union, and the tabloid National Enquirer were his highest profile supporters. USA Today, which had not endorsed any candidate since it was founded in 1982, broke tradition by giving an anti-endorsement against Trump, declaring him "unfit for the presidency".

Gary Johnson received endorsements from several major daily newspapers, including the Chicago Tribune, and the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Other traditionally Republican papers, including the New Hampshire Union Leader, which had endorsed the Republican nominee in every election for the last 100 years, and The Detroit News, which had not endorsed a non-Republican in its 143 years, endorsed Gary Johnson.

Notable expressions, phrases, and statements

By Trump and Republicans:

"Because you'd be in jail": Off-the-cuff quip by Donald Trump during the second presidential debate, in rebuttal to Clinton stating it was "awfully good someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country".

"Bigly": A word used by Donald Trump most notably during the first presidential debate, Trump claims that he said, "I'm going to cut taxes big-league, and you're going to raise taxes big-league", but that it was misheard by many as bigly.

"Build the wall": A chant used at many Trump campaign rallies, and Donald Trump's corresponding promise of the Mexican Border Wall.

"Drain the swamp": A phrase Donald Trump invoked late in the campaign to describe what needs to be done to fix problems in the federal government. Trump acknowledged that the phrase was suggested to him, and he was initially skeptical about using it.

"Grab 'em by the pussy" and "when you're a star, they let you do it": A remark made by Trump during a 2005 behind-the-scenes interview with presenter Billy Bush on NBCUniversal's Access Hollywood, which was released during the campaign.

"I like people who weren't captured": Donald Trump's criticism of Senator John McCain, who was held as a prisoner of war by North Vietnam during the Vietnam War.

"Lock her up": A chant first used at the Republican convention to claim that Hillary Clinton was guilty of a crime. The chant was later used at many Trump campaign rallies and even against other politicians critical of Trump, such as Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and (as "lock him up") against President Joe Biden. The phrase would also see use in the 2024 United States presidential election by opponents of Trump in reference to his indictments.

"Make America Great Again": Donald Trump's campaign slogan.

Debates

General election

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-profit organization, hosted debates between qualifying presidential and vice-presidential candidates. According to the commission's website, to be eligible to opt to participate in the anticipated debates, "in addition to being Constitutionally eligible, candidates must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College, and have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination".

The three locations (Hofstra University, Washington University in St. Louis, University of Nevada, Las Vegas) chosen to host the presidential debates, and the one location (Longwood University) selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced in September 2015. The site of the first debate was originally designated as Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio; however, due to rising costs and security concerns, the debate was moved to Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.

On August 19, Kellyanne Conway, Trump's campaign manager confirmed that Trump would participate in a series of three debates. Trump had complained two of the scheduled debates, one on September 26 and the other October 9, would have to compete for viewers with National Football League games, referencing the similar complaints made regarding the dates with low expected ratings during the Democratic Party presidential debates.

There were also debates between independent candidates.

Results

Election night and the next day

The news media and election experts were surprised at Trump's winning of the Electoral College. On the eve of the vote, spread betting firm Spreadex had Clinton at an Electoral College spread of 307–322 against Trump's 216–231. The final polls showed a lead by Clinton, and in the end she did receive more votes. Trump himself expected, based on polling, to lose the election, and rented a small hotel ballroom to make a brief concession speech, later remarking: "I said if we're going to lose I don't want a big ballroom". Trump performed surprisingly well in all battleground states, especially Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. Even the Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were narrowly won by Trump.

According to the authors of Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign, the White House had concluded by late Tuesday night that Trump would win the election. Obama's political director David Simas called Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook to persuade Clinton to concede the election, with no success. Obama then called Clinton directly, citing the importance of continuity of government, to ask her to publicly acknowledge that Trump had won. Believing that Clinton was still unwilling to concede, the president then called her campaign chair John Podesta, but the call to Clinton had likely already persuaded her.

The Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Trump at 1:35 AM EST, putting Trump at 267 electoral votes. By 2:01 AM EST, they had called both Maine and Nebraska's second congressional districts for Trump, putting him at 269 electoral votes, making it impossible for Clinton to reach 270. One minute after this, John Podesta told Hillary Clinton's victory party in New York that the election was too close to call. At 2:29 AM EST, the Associated Press called Wisconsin, and the election, for Trump, giving him 279 electoral votes. By 2:37 AM EST, Clinton had called Trump to concede the election.

On Wednesday morning at 2:30 AM EST, it was reported that Trump had secured Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, giving him a majority of the 538 electors in the Electoral College, enough to make him the president-elect of the United States, and Trump gave his victory speech at 2:50 AM EST. Later that day, Clinton asked her supporters to accept the result and hoped that Trump would be "a successful president for all Americans". In his speech, Trump appealed for unity, saying "it is time for us to come together as one united people", and praised Clinton as someone who was owed "a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country".

Statistical analysis

The 2016 election was the fifth and most recent presidential election in which the winning candidate lost the popular vote. Six states plus a portion of Maine that Obama won in 2012 switched to Trump (Electoral College votes in parentheses): Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and Maine's second congressional district (1). Initially, Trump won exactly 100 more Electoral College votes than Mitt Romney had in 2012, with two lost to faithless electors in the final tally. Thirty-nine states swung more Republican compared to the previous presidential election, while eleven states and the District of Columbia swung more Democratic. Based on United States Census Bureau estimates of the voting age population (VAP), turnout of voters casting a vote for president was nearly 1% higher than in 2012. Examining overall turnout in the 2016 election, the University of Florida's Michael McDonald estimated that 138.8 million Americans cast a ballot. Considering a VAP of 250.6 million people and a voting-eligible population (VEP) of 230.6 million people, this is a turnout rate of 55.4% VAP and 60.2% VEP. Based on this estimate, voter turnout was up compared to 2012 (54.1% VAP) but down compared to 2008 (57.4% VAP). An FEC report of the election recorded an official total of 136.7 million votes cast for president—more than any prior election.

By losing New York, Trump became the fourth and most recent victorious candidate to lose his home state, which also occurred in 1844, 1916, and 1968. Furthermore, along with James Polk in 1844, Trump is one of two victorious presidential nominees to win without either their home state or birth state (in this case, both were New York). Data scientist Hamdan Azhar noted the paradoxes of the 2016 outcome, saying that "chief among them [was] the discrepancy between the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won by 2.8 million votes, and the electoral college, where Trump won 304–227". He said Trump outperformed Mitt Romney's 2012 results, while Clinton only just matched Barack Obama's 2012 totals. Hamdan also said Trump was "the highest vote earner of any Republican candidate ever", exceeding George W. Bush's 62.04 million votes in 2004, though neither reached Clinton's 65.9 million, nor Obama's 69.5 million votes in 2008. He concluded, with help from The Cook Political Report, that the election hinged not on Clinton's large 2.8 million overall vote margin over Trump, but rather on about 78,000 votes from only three counties in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Clinton was the first former Secretary of State to be nominated by a major political party since James G. Blaine in 1884.

This is the first election since 1988 in which the Republican nominee won the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the first since 1984 in which they won Wisconsin. It was the first time since 1988 that the Republican nominee won Maine's second congressional district and the first time since George W. Bush's victory in New Hampshire in 2000 that they won any electoral votes in the Northeast. Clinton only narrowly won New Hampshire by 0.37% (2,736 votes).

Results by state

The table below displays the official vote tallies by each state's Electoral College voting method. The source for the results of all states is the official Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Trump's margin of victory over Clinton (the margin is negative for every state that Clinton won). A total of 29 third party and independent presidential candidates appeared on the ballot in at least one state. Former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson and physician Jill Stein repeated their 2012 roles as the nominees for the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, respectively.

Aside from Florida and North Carolina, the states that secured Trump's victory are situated in the Great Lakes/Rust Belt region. Wisconsin went Republican for the first time since 1984, while Pennsylvania and Michigan went Republican for the first time since 1988. Stein petitioned for a recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Clinton campaign pledged to participate in the Green Party recount efforts, while Trump backers challenged them in court. Meanwhile, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente petitioned for and was granted a partial recount in Nevada. According to a 2021 study in Science Advances, conversion of voters who voted for Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 contributed to Republican flips in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Two states (Maine and Nebraska) allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates by congressional districts. The winner within each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes. Results are from The New York Times.

Florida

Iowa

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Michigan

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Battleground states

Most media outlets announced the beginning of the presidential race about twenty months prior to Election Day. Soon after the first contestants declared their candidacy, Larry Sabato listed Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio as the seven states most likely to be contested in the general election. After Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination, many pundits felt that the major campaign locations might be different from what had originally been expected.

Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Michigan were thought to be in play with Trump as the nominee, while states with large minority populations, such as Colorado and Virginia, were expected to shift towards Clinton. By the conventions period and the debates, however, it did not seem as though the Rust Belt states could deliver a victory to Trump, as many of them were considered to be part of the "blue wall" of Democratic-leaning states. Trump's courting of the Polish-American vote, a sizable number of whom were Reagan Democrats, has been cited as the cause for the loss of the Rust Belt by the Democratic nominee. According to Politico and FiveThirtyEight, his path to victory went through states such as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and possibly Colorado.

Early polling indicated a closer-than-usual race in former Democratic strongholds such as Washington, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine (for the two statewide electoral votes), and New Mexico.

A consensus among political pundits developed throughout the primary election season regarding swing states. From the results of presidential elections from 2004 through to 2012, the Democratic and Republican parties would generally start with a safe electoral vote count of about 150 to 200. However, the margins required to constitute a swing state are vague, and can vary between groups of analysts. It was thought that left-leaning states in the Rust Belt could become more conservative, as Trump had strong appeal among many blue-collar workers. They represent a large portion of the American populace and were a major factor in Trump's eventual nomination. Trump's primary campaign was propelled by victories in Democratic states, and his supporters often did not identify as Republican.

Media reports indicated that both candidates planned to concentrate on Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina. Among the Republican-leaning states, potential Democratic targets included Nebraska's second congressional district, Georgia, and Arizona. Trump's relatively poor polling in some traditionally Republican states, such as Utah, raised the possibility that they could vote for Clinton, despite easy wins there by recent Republican nominees. However, many analysts asserted that these states were not yet viable Democratic destinations. Several sites and individuals publish electoral predictions. These generally rate the race by the likelihood for each party to win a state. The "tossup" label is usually used to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate a party has a slight edge, "likely" to indicate a party has a clear but not overwhelming advantage, and "safe" to indicate a party has an advantage that cannot be overcome.

Close states

States where the margin of victory was under 1% (50 electoral votes; 46 won by Trump, 4 by Clinton):

Michigan, 0.23% (10,704 votes) – 16 electoral votes

New Hampshire, 0.37% (2,736 votes) – 4 electoral votes

Pennsylvania, 0.72% (44,292 votes) – 20 electoral votes (tipping point state, including two faithless GOP electors)

Wisconsin, 0.77% (22,748 votes) – 10 electoral votes (tipping point state, excluding the two faithless GOP electors)

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (83 electoral votes; 56 won by Trump, 27 by Clinton):

Florida, 1.20% (112,911 votes) – 29 electoral votes

Minnesota, 1.52% (44,765 votes) – 10 electoral votes

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 2.24% (6,534 votes) – 1 electoral vote

Nevada, 2.42% (27,202 votes) – 6 electoral votes

Maine, 2.96% (22,142 votes) – 2 electoral votes

Arizona, 3.54% (91,234 votes) – 11 electoral votes

North Carolina, 3.66% (173,315 votes) – 15 electoral votes

Colorado, 4.91% (136,386 votes) – 9 electoral votes

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (94 electoral votes; 76 won by Trump, 18 by Clinton):

County statistics

Counties with highest percentage of Republican vote:

Roberts County, Texas 94.58%

King County, Texas 93.71%

Motley County, Texas 92.03%

Hayes County, Nebraska 91.83%

Shackelford County, Texas 91.62%

Counties with highest percentage of Democratic vote:

Bronx County, New York 88.52%

Prince George's County, Maryland 88.13%

Claiborne County, Mississippi 86.80%

Viewership

The 2016 election was highly viewed, setting viewership records on CNN and Fox News. Over 28 million people watched the election on cable television, with 63.99 million viewers including broadcast television. While more highly viewed than 2012 (60.86 million viewers), it was less viewed than 2008 (71.5 million viewers).

Exit poll

Voter demographic data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, CBS News, MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day, in addition to 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters. Trump's crucial victories in the Midwest were aided in large part by his strong margins among non-college whites—while Obama lost those voters by a margin of 10 points in 2012, Clinton lost this group by 20 percent.

The election also represented the first time that Republicans performed better among lower-income whites than among affluent white voters. Clinton however had the majority amongst lower-income Americans overall.

Voters 40 years of age or older (born in 1976 or earlier) were estimated to comprise 64% of the electorate in the exit poll. The Pew Research Center later showed that the Greatest Generation, the Silent Generation, Baby boomers, and Generation X accounted for 155 million of the 224 million eligible voters (or approximately 69%). Baby boomers and Generation X alone comprised 127 million of the eligible voters (or approximately 57%). There was an age gap, with Clinton winning voters under the age of 40, while Trump won voters over the age of 40.

Trump narrowed Clinton's margin compared to Obama by seven points among blacks and African-Americans, eight points among Latinos, and 11 points among Asian-Americans. Meanwhile, Trump increased his lead with non-Hispanic white voters through one percent over Mitt Romney's performance, and American Indians, Alaska Natives, and Pacific Islanders shifted their support towards the Republican candidate using the same relative amount. Additionally, although 74 percent of Muslim voters supported Clinton, Trump nearly doubled his support among those voters compared to Mitt Romney at 13 percent, according to the Council on American–Islamic Relations exit poll.

However, "more convincing data" from the polling firm Latino Decisions indicates that Clinton received a higher share of the Hispanic vote, and Trump a lower share, than the Edison exit polls showed. Using wider, more geographically and linguistically representative sampling, Latino Decisions concluded that Clinton won 79% of Hispanic voters (also an improvement over Obama's share in 2008 and 2012), while Trump won only 18% (lower than previous Republicans such as Romney and McCain). Additionally, the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study found that Clinton's share of the Hispanic vote was one percentage point higher than Obama's in 2012, while Trump's was seven percentage points lower than Romney's.

Election forecasts

Various methods were used to forecast the outcome of the 2016 election. There were many competing election forecast approaches including Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, The Upshot at The New York Times, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg and Gonzales, PollyVote, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Electoral-Vote. These models mostly showed a Democratic advantage since the nominees were confirmed, and were supported by pundits and statisticians, including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Cohn at The New York Times, and Larry Sabato from the Crystal Ball newsletter, who predicted a Democratic victory in competitive presidential races and projected consistent leads in several battleground states around the country. However, FiveThirtyEight's model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in the final weeks based on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania. This was due to the demographics targeted by Trump's campaign which lived in big numbers there, in addition to Clinton's poor performance in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012, as well as having a big number of her potential voters in very populated traditionally 'blue' states, but also in some very populated states traditionally 'red', like Texas, which were projected safe for Trump.

Early exit polls generally favored Clinton. After the polls closed and some of the results came in, the forecasts were found to be inaccurate, as Trump performed better in the competitive Midwestern states, such as Iowa, Ohio, and Minnesota, than expected. Three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) which were considered to be part of Clinton's firewall, were narrowly won by Trump. Of the states in the Great Lakes region, Clinton won the swing state of Minnesota by one point, as well as traditional Democratic strongholds such as New York and Illinois with populous urban centers. This result stands in contrast to that of 2012, when President Barack Obama won all but Indiana, which he narrowly carried in 2008. This table displays the final polling average published by Real Clear Politics on November 7, the actual electoral margin, and the over-performance by either candidate relative to the polls.

Many pollsters were puzzled by the failure of mainstream forecasting models to predict the outcome of the 2016 election. Some journalists compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election. Sean Trende, writing for RealClearPolitics, wrote that many of the polls were accurate, but that the pundits' interpretation of these polls neglected polling error. Nate Silver found that the high number of undecided and third-party voters in the election was neglected in many of these models, and that many of these voters decided to vote for Trump. According to a February 2018 study by Public Opinion Quarterly, the main sources of polling error were "a late swing in vote preference toward Trump and a pervasive failure to adjust for over-representation of college graduates (who favored Clinton)", whereas the share of "shy" Trump voters (who declined to admit their support for Trump to the pollsters) proved to be negligible.

Post-election events and controversies

Trump's victory, considered unlikely by most forecasts, was characterized as an "upset" and as "shocking" by news organizations. Trump himself thought he would lose even as the polls were closing.

Protests

Following the announcement of Trump's election, large protests broke out across the United States with some continuing for several days.

Protesters held up a number of different signs and chanted various shouts including "Not my president" and "We don't accept the president-elect". The movement organized on Twitter under the hashtags #Antitrump and #NotMyPresident.

High school and college students walked out of classes to protest. At a few protests fires were lit, flags and other items were burned and people yelled derogatory remarks about Trump. Rioters also broke glass at certain locations.

Celebrities such as Madonna, Cher, and Lady Gaga took part in New York. Kendrick Lamar's song "Alright" was used repeatedly by protestors, despite the movement receiving no endorsement from Lamar himself. Some protesters took to blocking freeways in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Portland, Oregon, and were dispersed by police in the early hours of the morning. In a number of cities, protesters were dispersed with rubber bullets, pepper spray and bean-bags fired by police.

In New York City, calls were made to continue the protests over the coming days after the election. Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti expressed understanding of the protests and praised those who peacefully wanted to make their voices heard.

Vote tampering concerns

After the election, computer scientists, including J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, urged the Clinton campaign to request an election recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (three swing states where Trump had won narrowly) for the purpose of excluding the possibility that the hacking of electronic voting machines had influenced the recorded outcome. However, statistician Nate Silver performed a regression analysis which demonstrated that the alleged discrepancy between paper ballots and electronic voting machines "completely disappears once you control for race and education level". On November 25, the Obama administration said the results from November 8 "accurately reflect the will of the American people". The following day, the White House released another statement, saying: "the federal government did not observe any increased level of malicious cyberactivity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on Election Day".

In the years following the election, Hillary Clinton has alleged that official maleficence contributed to and may have caused her electoral loss, saying in 2022, "Literally within hours of the polls closing in 2016, we had so much evidence pouring in about voters being turned away in Milwaukee and not being able to vote in Detroit. These states were run by Republicans so there was no way to find out the truth about any of them".

Donald Trump and New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu both complained that liberal voters from Massachusetts were illegally bused into New Hampshire for the 2016 election, and Scott Brown blamed the same phenomenon for losing his senate race in 2014. The New Hampshire Secretary of State and New Hampshire Department of Justice issued a report in 2018 regarding complaints of voters being bused in from Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts for the 2016 election. They found that in every case, field inspectors were able to determine that the voters were from New Hampshire, though they were riding a bus operated by an out-of-state company (which has its name and address written on the outside of the bus, presumably the source of the confusion). Out of 743,000 votes cast, four were determined to be cast illegally, either because the voters were told to go to the wrong location, or because the voter believed they were able to vote in each town in which they owned property. Out of about 6,000 same-day voter registrations in the state, the report says only 66 voters could not have their residency confirmed (though fraud is not the only explanation for such a failure).

Recount petitions

On November 23, Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein launched a public fundraiser to pay for recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, asserting that the election's outcome had been affected by hacking in those states; Stein did not provide evidence for her claims. Changing the outcome of these three states would make Clinton the winner, and this would require showing that fewer than 60,000 votes had been counted for Trump which should have been counted for Clinton. Stein filed for a recount in Wisconsin on November 25, after which Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias said their campaign would join Stein's recount efforts in that state and possibly others "in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides". Stein subsequently filed for a recount in Pennsylvania on November 28, and in Michigan on November 30. Concurrently, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente sought and was granted a partial recount in Nevada that was unrelated to Stein's efforts.

President-elect Donald Trump issued a statement denouncing Stein's Wisconsin recount request saying, "The people have spoken and the election is over". Trump further commented that the recount "is a scam by the Green Party for an election that has already been conceded". The Trump campaign and Republican Party officials moved to block Stein's three recount efforts through state and federal courts.

U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith ordered a halt to the recount in Michigan on December 7, dissolving a previous temporary restraining order against the Michigan Board of Elections that allowed the recount to continue, stating in his order: "Plaintiffs have not presented evidence of tampering or mistake. Instead, they present speculative claims going to the vulnerability of the voting machinery—but not actual injury". On December 12, U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond rejected an appeal by the Green Party and Jill Stein to force a recount in Pennsylvania, stating that suspicion of a hacked Pennsylvania election "borders on the irrational" and that granting the Green Party's recount bid could "ensure that no Pennsylvania vote counts" given the December 13, federal deadline to certify the vote for the Electoral College. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin recount was allowed to continue as it was nearing completion and had uncovered no significant irregularities.

The recounts in Wisconsin and Nevada were completed on schedule, resulting in only minor changes to vote tallies. A partial recount of Michigan ballot found some precinct imbalances in Detroit, which were corrected. A subsequent state audit found no evidence of voter fraud and concluded that the mistakes, which were "almost entirely" caused by poll-worker mistakes attributed to poor training, did not impair "the ability of Detroit residents to cast a ballot and have their vote counted". The overall outcome of the election remained unchanged by the recount efforts.

Electoral College lobbying

Intense lobbying (in one case involving claims of harassment and death threats) and grass-roots campaigns were directed at various GOP electors of the United States Electoral College to convince a sufficient number of them (37) to not vote for Trump, thus precluding a Trump presidency. Members of the Electoral College themselves started a campaign for other members to "vote their conscience for the good of America" in accordance with Alexander Hamilton's Federalist Paper No. 68. Former candidate Lawrence Lessig and attorney Laurence Tribe established The Electors Trust on December 5 under the aegis of Equal Citizens to provide pro bono legal counsel as well as a secure communications platform for members of the Electoral College who were considering a vote of conscience against Trump.

On December 6, Colorado Secretary of State Wayne W. Williams castigated Democratic electors who had filed a lawsuit in Federal court to have the state law binding them to the popular vote (in their case for Hillary Clinton) overturned.

On December 10, ten electors, in an open letter headed by Christine Pelosi to the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, demanded an intelligence briefing in light of Russian interference in the election to help Trump win the presidency. Fifty-eight additional electors subsequently added their names to the letter, bringing the total to 68 electors from 17 different states. On December 16, the briefing request was denied.

On December 19, several electors voted against their pledged candidates: two against Trump and five against Clinton. A further three electors attempted to vote against Clinton but were replaced or forced to vote again. The 115th United States Congress officially certified the results on January 6, 2017.

Faithless electors

In the Electoral College vote on December 19, for the first time since the ratification of the 12th Amendment, multiple faithless electors voted against their pledged qualified presidential candidate. Five Democrats rebelled in Washington and Hawaii, while two Republicans rebelled in Texas. Two Democratic electors, one in Minnesota and one in Colorado, were replaced after voting for Bernie Sanders and John Kasich, respectively. Electors in Maine conducted a second vote after one of its members voted for Sanders; the elector then voted for Clinton. Likewise, for the first time since 1896, multiple faithless electors voted against the pledged qualified vice presidential candidate.

One Clinton elector in Colorado attempted to vote for John Kasich. The single vote was ruled invalid by Colorado state law, the elector was dismissed, and an alternative elector was sworn in who voted for Clinton.

One Clinton elector in Minnesota voted for Bernie Sanders as president and Tulsi Gabbard as vice president; his votes were discarded and he was replaced by an alternate who voted for Clinton.

One Clinton elector in Maine voted for Bernie Sanders; this vote was invalidated as "improper" and the elector subsequently voted for Clinton.

Four Clinton electors in Washington did not vote for Clinton (three votes went to Colin Powell, and one to Faith Spotted Eagle).

One Trump elector in Georgia resigned before the vote rather than vote for Trump and was replaced by an alternate.

Two Trump electors in Texas did not vote for Trump (one vote went to John Kasich, one to Ron Paul); one elector did not vote for Pence and instead voted for Carly Fiorina for vice president; a third resigned before the vote rather than vote for Trump and was replaced by an alternate.

One Clinton elector in Hawaii voted for Bernie Sanders.

Of the faithless votes, Colin Powell and Elizabeth Warren were the only two to receive more than one; Powell received three electoral votes for president and Warren received two for vice president. Receiving one valid electoral vote each were Sanders, John Kasich, Ron Paul and Faith Spotted Eagle for president, and Carly Fiorina, Susan Collins, Winona LaDuke and Maria Cantwell for vice president. Sanders is the first Jewish American to receive an electoral vote for president. LaDuke is the first Green Party member to receive an electoral vote, and Paul is the third member of the Libertarian Party to do so, following the party's presidential and vice-presidential nominees each getting one vote in 1972. It is the first election with faithless electors from more than one political party.

Democratic objections to vote certification

On January 6, 2017, a Joint Session of Congress was held to count the Electoral College votes, pursuant to the Electoral Count Act. This count was unusual for the many unsuccessful objections raised by Democratic members of the House of Representatives, alleging voter suppression and foreign interference.

Handling of illegal votes

Critics alleged racial bias after comparing the different sentences handed down to two white people and one black person who were convicted of attempting to vote illegally in the 2016 presidential election.

Involvement of other countries

On December 9, 2016, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta's emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed. President Barack Obama ordered a "full review" into such possible intervention. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper in early January 2017 testified before a Senate committee that Russia's meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news, often promoted on social media. Facebook revealed that during the 2016 United States presidential election, a Russian company funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin, had purchased advertisements on the website for US$100,000, 25% of which were geographically targeted to the U.S.

President-elect Trump originally called the report fabricated. Julian Assange said the Russian government was not the source of the documents. Days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking "if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies".

Several U.S. senators—including Republicans John McCain, Richard Burr, and Lindsey Graham—demanded a congressional investigation. The Senate Intelligence Committee announced the scope of their bipartisan official inquiry on December 13, which began on January 24, 2017.

A formal Special Counsel investigation headed by former FBI director Robert Mueller was initiated in May 2017 to uncover the detailed interference operations by Russia, and to determine whether any people associated with the Trump campaign were complicit in the Russian efforts. When questioned by Chuck Todd on Meet the Press in March 2017, Clapper declared that intelligence investigations on Russian interference performed by the FBI, CIA, NSA and his ODNI office had found no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. Mueller concluded his investigation on March 22, 2019, by submitting his report to Attorney General William Barr.

On March 24, 2019, Barr submitted a letter describing Mueller's conclusions, and on April 18, 2019, a redacted version of the Mueller report was released to the public. It concluded that Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election did occur "in sweeping and systematic fashion" and "violated U.S. criminal law".