1980 United States presidential election

Background

Throughout the 1970s, the United States underwent a wrenching period of stagflation (low economic growth, high inflation, and interest rates), and intermittent energy crises. By October 1978, Iran—a major oil supplier to the United States at the time—was experiencing a major uprising that severely damaged its oil infrastructure and greatly weakened its capability to produce oil. In January 1979, shortly after Iran's leader Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi fled the country, Iranian opposition figure Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini ended his 14-year exile in France and returned to Iran to establish an Islamic Republic, largely hostile to American interests and influence in the country. In the spring and summer of 1979, inflation was on the rise and various parts of the United States were experiencing energy shortages.

Carter was widely blamed for the return of the long gas lines in the summer of 1979 that were last seen just after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. He planned on delivering his fifth major speech on energy, but he felt that the American people were no longer listening. Carter left for the presidential retreat of Camp David. "For more than a week, a veil of secrecy enveloped the proceedings. Dozens of prominent Democratic Party leaders—members of Congress, governors, labor leaders, academics and clergy—were summoned to the mountaintop retreat to confer with the beleaguered president." His pollster, Pat Caddell, told him that the American people simply faced a crisis of confidence because of the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr.; the Vietnam War; and Watergate. On July 15, 1979, Carter gave a nationally televised address in which he identified what he believed to be a "crisis of confidence" among the American people. This came to be known as his "Malaise speech", although Carter never used the word in the speech.

Many expected Senator Ted Kennedy to successfully challenge Carter in the upcoming Democratic primary. Kennedy's official announcement was scheduled for early November. A television interview with Roger Mudd of CBS a few days before the announcement went badly, however. Kennedy gave an "incoherent and repetitive" answer to the question of why he was running, and the polls, which showed him leading Carter by 58–25 in August now had him ahead 49–39. Kennedy was also politically scarred by the 1969 Chappaquiddick incident; the controversy had been a major reason for Kennedy's decision to not run for president in 1972 and 1976.

Meanwhile, Carter was given an opportunity for political redemption when the Khomeini regime again gained public attention and allowed the taking of 52 American hostages by a group of Islamist students and militants at the U.S. embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979. Carter's calm approach towards the handling of this crisis resulted in his approval ratings jump in the 60-percent range in some polls, due to a "rally round the flag" effect.

Nominations

Republican Party

The following candidates were frequently interviewed by major broadcast networks and cable news channels, were listed in publicly published national polls, or had held a public office. Reagan received 7,709,793 votes in the primaries.

Former governor Ronald Reagan of California was the odds-on favorite to win his party's nomination for president after nearly beating incumbent president Gerald Ford just four years earlier. Reagan dominated the primaries early, driving from the field Senate minority leader Howard Baker from Tennessee, former governor John Connally of Texas, Senator Robert Dole from Kansas, Representative Phil Crane from Illinois, and Representative John Anderson from Illinois, who dropped out of the race to run as an Independent. George H. W. Bush from Texas posed the strongest challenge to Reagan with his victories in the Pennsylvania and Michigan primaries, but it was not enough to turn the tide. Reagan won the nomination on the first round at the 1980 Republican National Convention in Detroit, Michigan, in July, then chose Bush (his top rival) as his running mate. Reagan, Bush, and Dole were the Republican nominees in the next four elections (Reagan in 1984, Bush in 1988 and 1992, and Dole in 1996).

Democratic Party

The following candidates were frequently interviewed by major broadcast networks, were listed in published national polls, or had held public office. Carter received 10,043,016 votes in the primaries.

The three major Democratic candidates were incumbent president Jimmy Carter, Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, and Governor Jerry Brown of California. Brown withdrew on April 2. Carter and Kennedy faced off in 34 primaries. Not counting the 1968 election in which Lyndon Johnson withdrew his candidacy, this was the most tumultuous primary race an elected incumbent president had encountered since William Howard Taft in 1912.

During the summer of 1980, there was a short-lived "Draft Muskie" movement; Secretary of State Edmund Muskie was seen as a favorable alternative to a deadlocked convention. One poll showed that Muskie would be a more popular alternative to Carter than Kennedy, implying that the attraction was not so much to Kennedy as to nominating someone other than Carter. Muskie was polling even with Reagan at the time, while Carter was seven points behind. Although the underground "Draft Muskie" campaign failed, it became a political legend.

After defeating Kennedy in 24 of 34 primaries, Carter entered the party's convention in New York in August with 60% of the delegates pledged to him on the first ballot. Still, Kennedy did not drop out. At the convention, after a last-ditch attempt by Kennedy to alter the rules to free delegates from their first-ballot pledges, Carter was renominated with 2,129 votes to Kennedy's 1,146. Vice President Walter Mondale was also renominated. In his acceptance speech, Carter warned that Reagan's conservatism posed a threat to world peace and progressive social welfare programs from the New Deal to the Great Society.

Other candidates

John B. Anderson was defeated in the Republican primaries, but entered the general election as an independent. He campaigned as a liberal Republican alternative to Reagan. Anderson's campaign appealed primarily to frustrated anti-Carter voters with Republican or Democratic allegiances. Anderson's running mate was Patrick Lucey, a Democratic former governor of Wisconsin and then ambassador to Mexico, appointed by President Carter.

The Libertarian Party nominated Ed Clark for president and David Koch for vice president. They were on the ballot in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. The Libertarian Party platform was the only one that contained a plank advocating for the equal rights of homosexual men and women, as well as the only one to advocate "amnesty" for all illegal non-citizens.

The Citizens Party ran biologist Barry Commoner for president and Comanche Native American activist LaDonna Harris for vice president. The Commoner–Harris ticket was on the ballot in 29 states and Washington, D.C.

General election

Polling aggregation

The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from July 1979 to November 1980.

Campaign

Reagan gained in former Democratic strongholds such as the South and white ethnics dubbed "Reagan Democrats", and exuded upbeat optimism. David Frum says Carter ran an attack-based campaign based on "despair and pessimism" which "cost him the election." Carter emphasized his record as a peacemaker, and said Reagan's election would threaten civil rights and social programs that stretched back to the New Deal. Reagan's platform also emphasized the importance of peace, as well as a prepared self-defense.

Immediately after the conclusion of the primaries, a Gallup poll held that Reagan was ahead, with 58% of voters upset by Carter's handling of the presidency. One analysis of the election has suggested that "Both Carter and Reagan were perceived negatively by a majority of the electorate." While the three leading candidates (Reagan, Anderson and Carter) were religious Christians, Carter had the most support of evangelical Christians according to a Gallup poll. However, in the end, Jerry Falwell's Moral Majority lobbying group is credited with giving Reagan two-thirds of the white evangelical vote. According to Carter: "that autumn [1980] a group headed by Jerry Falwell purchased $10 million in commercials on southern radio and TV to brand me as a traitor to the South and no longer a Christian."

Some Christians expressed skepticism of Reagan's background as a twice-married former Hollywood actor with a liberal abortion record and support for no-fault divorce as governor of California.

The election of 1980 was a key turning point in American politics. It signaled the new electoral power of the suburbs and the Sun Belt. Reagan's success as a conservative would initiate a realigning of the parties, as Rockefeller-style Republicans and conservative Democrats would either leave politics or change party affiliations through the 1980s and 1990s to leave the parties much more ideologically polarized. While during Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign, many voters saw his warnings about a too-powerful government as hyperbolic and only 30% of the electorate agreed that government was too powerful, by 1980 a majority of Americans believed that government held too much power.

Reagan promised a restoration of the nation's military strength, at the same time 60% of Americans polled felt defense spending was too low. Reagan also promised an end to "trust me government" and to restore economic health by implementing a supply-side economic policy. Reagan promised a balanced budget within three years (which he said would be "the beginning of the end of inflation"), accompanied by a 30% reduction in tax rates over those same years. With respect to the economy, Reagan famously said, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his." Reagan also criticized the "windfall profit tax" that Carter and Congress enacted that year in regards to domestic oil production and promised to attempt to repeal it as president. The tax was not a tax on profits, but on the difference between the price control-mandated price and the market price.

Presidential debates

The League of Women Voters, which had sponsored the 1976 Ford/Carter debate series, announced that it would do so again for the next cycle in the spring of 1979. Carter steadfastly refused to participate in a debate if Anderson was included, and Reagan refused to debate without him. A League-sponsored debate was held on September 21, 1980, in the Baltimore Convention Center. Of Carter's refusal to debate, Reagan said: "He [Carter] knows that he couldn't win a debate even if it were held in the Rose Garden before an audience of Administration officials with the questions being asked by Jody Powell". Anderson, who many thought would handily dispatch Reagan, managed only a narrow win, according to many in the media at that time, with Reagan putting up a much stronger performance than expected. Despite the narrow win in the debate, Anderson, who had been as high as 20% in some polls, and at the time of the debate was over 10%, dropped to about 5% soon after. Anderson failed to substantively engage Reagan enough on their social issue differences and on Reagan's advocation of supply-side economics. Instead, Anderson started off by criticizing Carter: "Governor Reagan is not responsible for what has happened over the last four years, nor am I. The man who should be here tonight to respond to those charges chose not to attend," to which Reagan added: "It's a shame now that there are only two of us here debating, because the two that are here are in more agreement than disagreement." In one moment in the debate, Reagan commented on a rumor that Anderson had invited Senator Ted Kennedy to be his running mate by asking the candidate directly, "John, would you really prefer Teddy Kennedy to me?"

As September turned into October, the situation remained essentially the same. Reagan insisted Anderson be allowed to participate in a three-way debate, while Carter remained steadfastly opposed to this. As the standoff continued, the second debate was canceled, as was the vice presidential debate.

With two weeks to go to the election, the Reagan campaign decided at that point that the best thing to do was to accede to all of President Carter's demands. The final debate, featuring only Carter and Reagan, was rescheduled for October 28 in Cleveland, Ohio. The showdown ranked among the highest ratings of any television program in the previous decade. Debate topics included the Iranian hostage crisis and nuclear arms. Carter's campaign sought to portray Reagan as a reckless "war hawk", as well as a "dangerous right-wing radical". But it was President Carter's reference to his consultation with 12-year-old daughter Amy concerning nuclear weapons policy that became the focus of post-debate analysis and fodder for late-night television jokes. President Carter said he had asked Amy what the most important issue in that election was and she said, "the control of nuclear arms." A famous political cartoon, published the day after Reagan's landslide victory, showed Amy Carter sitting in Jimmy's lap with her shoulders shrugged asking "the economy? the hostage crisis?"

Endorsements

In September 1980, former Watergate scandal prosecutor Leon Jaworski accepted a position as honorary chairman of Democrats for Reagan. Five months earlier, Jaworski had harshly criticized Reagan as an "extremist"; he said after accepting the chairmanship, "I would rather have a competent extremist than an incompetent moderate."

Former Democratic Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota (who in 1968 had challenged Lyndon B. Johnson from the left, causing the then-President to all but abdicate) endorsed Reagan.

Three days before the election, the National Rifle Association of America endorsed a presidential candidate for the first time in its history, backing Reagan. Reagan had received the California Rifle and Pistol Association's Outstanding Public Service Award. Carter had appointed Abner J. Mikva, a fervent proponent of gun control, to a federal judgeship and had supported the Alaska Lands Bill, closing 40,000,000 acres (160,000 km2) to hunting.

Results

The election was held on November 4, 1980. Ronald Reagan and running mate George H. W. Bush defeated the Carter-Mondale ticket by almost 10 percentage points in the popular vote. The electoral college vote was a landslide, with 489 votes (representing 44 states) for Reagan and 49 for Carter (representing six states and Washington, D.C.). Republicans also gained control of the Senate for the first time since 1954.

NBC News projected Reagan as the winner at 8:15 pm EST (5:15 PST), before voting was finished in the West, based on exit polls; it was the first time a broadcast network used exit polling to project a winner, and it took the other broadcast networks by surprise. Carter conceded defeat at 9:50 pm EST. Some of Carter's advisors urged him to wait until 11:00 pm EST to allow poll results from the West Coast to come in, but Carter decided to concede earlier in order to avoid the impression that he was sulking. Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill angrily accused Carter of weakening the party's performance in the Senate elections by doing this.

John Anderson won 6.6% of the popular vote but no states. He had the most support in New England, fueled by liberal and moderate Republicans who felt Reagan was too far to the right, and with voters who normally leaned Democratic but were dissatisfied with the Carter administration's policies. His best showing was in Massachusetts, where he won 15% of the vote.

Anderson performed worst in the South, receiving under 2% of the vote in South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. He said he was accused of spoiling the election by receiving votes that might have otherwise been cast for Carter, but 37% of Anderson voters polled preferred Reagan as their second choice. Libertarian Party nominee Ed Clark received 921,299 popular votes (1.06%).

Carter's loss was the worst performance by an incumbent president since Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin Roosevelt by a margin of 18% in 1932, and his 49 Electoral College votes were the fewest won by an incumbent since William Howard Taft won eight in 1912. Carter was the first incumbent Democrat to serve only one full term since James Buchanan, and the last until Joe Biden. This was the third and most recent presidential election in which the incumbent Democrat lost reelection, after 1840 and 1888. This was the first time since 1840 that an incumbent Democrat lost the popular vote. Reagan had the most lopsided Electoral College victory for a first-time president-elect, with the exception of George Washington's unanimous victory in 1788.

Results

Source (popular vote): Leip, David. "1980 Presidential Election Results". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved August 7, 2005.

Source (electoral vote): "Electoral College Box Scores 1789–1996". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved August 7, 2005.

Results by state

Source:

Maine allowed its electoral votes to be split between candidates. Two electoral votes were awarded to the winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. Reagan won all four votes.

Alabama

Arkansas

Delaware

Florida

Kentucky

Louisiana

Massachusetts

Mississippi

Missouri

New York

North Carolina

Ohio

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Wisconsin

Close states

Margin of victory less than 1% (30 electoral votes):

Massachusetts, 0.15% (3,829 votes)

Tennessee, 0.29% (4,710 votes)

Arkansas, 0.61% (5,123 votes)

Margin of victory less than 5% (135 electoral votes):

Alabama, 1.30% (17,462 votes)

Mississippi, 1.32% (11,808 votes)

Kentucky, 1.46% (18,857 votes)

South Carolina, 1.53% (13,647 votes)

Hawaii, 1.90% (5,767 votes)

North Carolina, 2.12% (39,383 votes)

Delaware, 2.33% (5,498 votes)

New York, 2.67% (165,459 votes)

Maryland, 2.96% (45,555 votes)

Maine's 1st Congressional District, 3.15% (8,661 votes)

Maine, 3.36% (17,548 votes)

Maine's 2nd Congressional District, 3.73% (8,887 votes)

Minnesota, 3.94% (80,933 votes)

West Virginia, 4.51% (33,256 votes)

Wisconsin, 4.72% (107,261 votes)

Margin of victory more than 5%, but less than 10% (113 electoral votes):

Voter demographics

Source: CBS News and The New York Times exit poll from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research (15,201 surveyed)

Aftermath

In 1986, it was revealed that Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos had allegedly donated money to both Carter's and Reagan's campaigns.