2026 Is The Gasoline Price Election, Not The Data Center Election

In mid-September, former president Barack Obama urged Democrat party candidates to seize on the issues surrounding data centers as the centerpiece of their campaigns, raising expectations that the 2026 midterm elections would turn on the issue. Those expectations seemed reasonable given Obama’s continuing influence in Democratic circles.

As is typical of the former president, he appeared to take both sides of the issue in a conversation with House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, as reported by the New York Times.

“This is something that is moving very fast in private hands, and if we don’t get on top of it, I think can be dangerous,” Obama said. “If we do get on top of it, I do think it’s beneficial. I genuinely think it’s going to accelerate, for example, drug development in ways that can help us cure diseases. I do think that this can help us figure out pathways for a clean energy future.”

So, Obama’s suggested tactic was for Democrats to try to exploit opposition to data centers as a means of obtaining political power — always the party’s central objective related to any issue — and then to suddenly convert to fans of the sector once in power. It’s the classic bait-and-switch strategy which Obama himself exploited so successfully throughout his own career.

But things have not turned out the way Obama had urged. A new report from a coalition of data center developers called Infrastructure For America (IFA) finds that the data center issue has been barely a blip on the screen amid major governors and senate races in key states this year. The report, headlined “The Midterms Are About Many Issues. But They’re Not About Data Centers,” finds the issue has largely been left out of political ads in races in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, and Texas. (RELATED: New Climate Study Seeks To Punish AI Companies For Their Excellence)

“If this is the data center election, then someone forgot to tell the campaigns, candidates, outside groups, and consultants spending millions of dollars on TV advertising,” the report says.

Indeed, in the races for governor and U.S. senate in those five states, just 5% of paid ads have mentioned data centers. The issue has been far outpaced by healthcare (mentioned in 19% of ads), affordability (25%), and corruption/personal attacks (32%). The latter category typifies the high rate of negative advertising which always takes place in heated races as candidates of both parties strive to define their opponents to voters. Issues surrounding healthcare have been key in every election cycle in this century, so its’ high ranking in these findings is no surprise.

That brings us to energy and affordability. Issues related to affordability are always on the ballot in any election cycle, but the issue has been greatly enhanced this year thanks to the dramatic increases in gasoline and diesel prices at the pump due mainly to the impacts of the Iran Conflict. In most cycles, politicians in both parties can credibly point fingers at the other side as having caused rising prices for all manner of things, but that is less true this year since the cause of higher prices is so unambiguous.

Because the source of the problem is so easily identifiable, voters are left to decide what to do about it. For most, that will devolve down to a calculation of whether they believe denying the radical regime in Iran the ability to develop nuclear weapons deliverable on long-range missiles is worth the resulting 40% rise in the price for gas and doubling of diesel prices since February 28. For those who decide it wasn’t worth the price, the decision then becomes what to do about it.