Canada GDP flat in July after expansion pause, August seen up 0.2%

Statistics Canada reported on September 29, 2026 that real GDP was unchanged at 0.0 percent in July after a revised 0.4 percent June gain, leaving output 1.4 percent above a year earlier. Manufacturing fell 0.9 percent, mining oil and gas extraction 0.5 percent, retail 1.0 percent and wholesale 0.4 percent; construction rose 1.3 percent. StatCan’s advance estimate showed August up 0.2 percent after Q2 growth it put at 3.3 percent annualized. Unplanned downtime at a southwestern Ontario refinery and a Saskatchewan mine disruption weighed on goods. U.S. tariffs took effect August 22. CONTESTED: RBC reported petroleum and coal products down 5.7 percent; Investing.com reported petroleum refineries down 6.2 percent. RBC cited Q2 annualized growth of 3.6 percent; StatCan estimated 3.3 percent. Left-rated outlets led with stalled or flat GDP despite construction and utilities gains; right-rated outlets stressed the pause after three months of expansion and a rebound in August. CIBC analysts said today’s data will likely be viewed as old news given U.S. trade uncertainty late in August, so employment, CPI and the Bank’s Business Outlook Survey matter more heading into the late October rate decision. RBC economist Abbey Xu said the August estimate is consistent with slower third-quarter growth in a gradual recovery and little broader tariff impact yet. August confirmation and tariff effects are next.