EXCLUSIVE: The Iran War Is Going To Go Ballistic After Midterms
U.S. military strikes on Iran could rapidly intensify soon, a senior military official exclusively told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Francis Kapper·Oct 18, 2026·8 min read
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U.S. military strikes on Iran could rapidly intensify soon, a senior military official exclusively told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
While American strikes on Iran appear to have reduced in frequency and intensity as the Trump administration braces for midterms, that could quickly change, a senior military official familiar with the matter granted anonymity to speak told the DCNF. To that point, the U.S. military is currently conducting a massive force buildup in the region.
“Things are about to get spicy,” the senior military official told the DCNF.
Approximately 9,000 additional sailors and Marines are deploying to the region aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and USS Makin Island amphibious ready group, potentially enhancing the regional American naval presence to more than 20,000 personnel and three aircraft carriers by late October, The Associated Press reported, citing a U.S. official.
American aerial refueling flights over the Middle East likewise increased approximately 50% per day during the first two weeks of October compared to September, alongside a significant increase in military transport aircraft activity, according to an open-source flight-tracking analysis published by IntelSky.
“Of course this buildup could be a direct preparation for already planned actions,” Steve Bucci, a retired Army colonel and visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Phillip N. Truluck Center for Leadership Development, told the DCNF. “It is more than likely a signal and a threat, with the hope it will not be needed, but with a full readiness to use it.”
“Iran’s attempt to establish their own deterrence against the West, and the U.S.’s attempt to do the same via its own military buildup will merely contribute to greater escalation and another round of conflict, which is inevitable,” Barak Seener, an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and founder of Strategic Intelligentia, also told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “The only question is when – before or after the midterms?”
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“The influx of fighter squadrons and carrier groups required to replace exhausted missile defense stockpiles is likely to contribute to the next phase of escalation rather than reestablish deterrence,” he added. “On the contrary, Iranian threats to global commerce in the Strait of Hormuz an attempt by the Iranian regime to establish their deterrence against the West from targeting the regime.”
Senior White House aides have reportedly sought to prevent a major escalation of the Iran war ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026, midterm elections. While officials could consider intensifying military operations after Americans head to the polls, no final decision on renewing large-scale strikes has been made,Reuters reported Sept. 2, citing four people familiar with internal discussions.
“It appears that Trump and Hegseth are planning another round of bombing Iran, which may actually happen before the midterm U.S. elections,” a Veterans for Peace spokesperson told the DCNF. “There is talk about dropping the ‘Mother Of All Bombs’ (MOAB), the most powerful ‘conventional’ weapon, or even dropping nuclear bombs! This will only cause more death, destruction and destabilization in the Middle East and worldwide.”
“I don’t believe that President Trump is taking any options off the table,” Alex Welz, a senior research associate for the Middle East and North Africa at the Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF. “He has publicly weighed the idea of reengaging in kinetic strikes but has also voiced hope for a diplomatic resolution. U.S. military deployments are essential in either case: to engage Iran in a limited, precise fashion, or to maintain a credible force posture against any Iranian threats.”
Iran has intensified attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, striking at least 24 vessels between Sept. 28 and Oct. 11 despite American strikes against its military infrastructure, according to an Oct. 14Institute for the Study of War assessment. Two additional cargo vessels sank in the strait Oct. 14. Meanwhile, Iranian forces have increasingly relied on small boats and human spotters to identify targets following American strikes on their coastal radar systems,Reuters reported, citing a U.S. military official.
The Iranian strikes may be a result of President Donald Trump’s recent statements threatening to “annihilate” the Islamic regime.
“I have a big decision to make,” Trump said Sept. 22 while addressing the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly, including whether he would “annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly.”
“In my view, it is impossible to opine sensibly as to what President Trump will do next,” J.D. Foster, a former senior fellow on the economics of fiscal policy at The Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF. “He’s put himself in a deep hole and all he knows how to do is dig deeper. He has recreated Vietnam 1968 to a fair approximation, except there’s no Haiphong Harbor to mine.”
“There is every indication that the U.S. military is prepared to escalate if that’s what the president orders,” Matthew Kyle Sharp, a senior nuclear fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) Security Studies Program, told the DCNF. “These preparations could also seek to deter Iranian escalation, or alternatively to generate pressure in support of negotiations. Threats of military escalation may be deemed necessary to close wide gaps between the two sides in terms of diplomacy.”
Iran, for its part, offered to open the Strait of Hormuz just a few days before Trump made that declaration.
Tehran told Washington it could reopen the critical waterway within seven days if the United States eased military pressure and lifted its blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official. Iran delivered the proposal through mediators Sept. 16 and said its delegation in New York had authority to revive diplomacy, according to the outlet.
Some experts, however, said the possibility of an escalation in the Iran War is directly linked to Israel and its upcoming elections.
“As was the case when Trump first initiated his war of choice on Iran, a reignition of the war would begin with the Israelis leading the attack and the U.S. being sucked in,” Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University who served on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, told the DCNF. “If this happens, the Iranians will counterattack and destroy all that remains of the oil infrastructure on the western side of the Persian Gulf as well as its vital desalination plants.”
“The buildup may be a deterrent aimed at adding credibility to Trump’s threats to attack after the midterms but it is having the opposite effect and may prompt Iran to preempt a potential U.S. attack before the election,” Jamal Abdi, the president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), told the DCNF. “Trump wants to hold off until after U.S. elections but Netanyahu may want strikes before his own election and Iranian officials have made clear they will not be second to strike.”
Likewise, the recent reduction in strikes on Iran by the U.S. military could also be tied to polling showing the Iran War is largely unpopular among Americans.
Sixty-four percent of respondents identified the conflict as one of their top voting considerations, according to an Oct. 15Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. The survey asked respondents to rate the importance of issues — including the war with Iran — when considering their vote in the upcoming election. Conducted Oct. 8-12 among 1,119 American adults, the poll carries an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
In addition, approximately 65% of respondents disapprove of President Trump’s handling of military operations against Iran, while 33% approve, according to an Oct. 8Pew Research Center poll. Conducted by SSRS for Pew from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, the poll surveyed a total of 5,062 American adults. Only 2,527 respondents received the Iran question, however, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points for that subgroup.
“The U.S. president has indicated desperation and frustration, and has threatened escalation and even nuclear escalation (nothing less would eliminate a whole civilization etc ). Continuing the war or ending it as things stand is a political disaster for him,” World Beyond War Executive Director David Swanson told the DCNF. “Some leading Democrats and many media outlets, rather than pressing him to end the war, have focused on denouncing what ever deal he might make to do so. Obviously any deal will be worse for Trump and Western oil companies than never having created the war or never having torn up the previous deal.”
Meanwhile, 69% of Americans believe the war in Iran has not been worth fighting, while 71% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict, according to an Oct. 1Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. Conducted from Sept. 24-28 among 2,140 American adults, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
“The Pentagon is facing big holes in its supply of key munitions, doubling down on the Iran war will put increased pressure on shortfalls of interceptors and certain missiles,” Abdi told the DCNF. “The President will need Congress to replenish supplies, but if Democrats win Congressional majorities, there will be enormous pressure to cut funding necessary to continue the war and to rearm.”
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